Demographics > Population Projections

D E M O G R A P H I C S

Print this Email this

Demographics > Population Projections

Table 3: Projected populations¹ , Māori and non-Māori, 2006–2021

How to interpret results - tables

Year	Māori			non-Māori
Year	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females	Total
2006	311,400	318,500	629,900	1,719,600	1,777,100	3,496,700
2011	333,700	340,100	673,800	1,781,200	1,837,000	3,618,100
2016	355,000	360,600	715,700	1,839,100	1,893,800	3,732,800
2021	376,700	381,500	758,100	1,890,400	1,945,400	3,835,900

Source: Statistics New Zealand

The Māori population has a high growth rate (average annual increase of 1.2 percent) relative to non-Māori (average annual increase of 0.6 percent). Between 2006 and 2021 the Māori population is expected to grow by 20 percent, whereas the non-Māori population is predicted to increase by 10 percent.

There are a number of drivers of this higher population growth for Māori, including a higher fertility rate for Māori females compared to non-Māori females (a higher number of births per woman of childbearing age): in 2004 the Māori fertility rate was 2.7, compared with 1.9 for non-Māori. Another factor is that the Māori population has a younger age structure, with a relatively large proportion in the main reproductive ages (15–44 years). This provides built-in momentum for future population growth.

Notes:
¹ Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2001 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Maori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2001 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.

Top Back