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Population Projections

Table 3: Projected populations1 , Māori and non-Māori, 2011–2026

Māori
non-Māori
Year
Males
Females
Total
Males
Females
Total2
2011
331,600
344,100
675,700
1,823,800
1,893,700
3,717,500
2016
357,400
369,400
726,800
1,897,000
1,964,900
3,861,900
2021
380,800
392,300
773,100
1,964,900
2,032,800
3,997,700
2026
403,400
414,300
817,700
2,026,000
2,095,600
4,121,700
Source: Statistics New Zealand

Notes:
  1. Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2006 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Maori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2006 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.
  2. Due to rounding, individual figures in this table do not add to give the stated totals.
  3. The total fertility rate is the average number of live births that a woman would have during her life if she experienced the agespecific fertility rates of a given period (usually a year). It excludes the effect of mortality.

The table above shows that the Māori population has a high growth rate (average annual increase of 1.4 percent) relative to non-Māori (average annual increase of 0.7 percent). Between 2011 and 2026, the Māori population is predicted to grow by 21 percent, whereas the non-Māori population is predicted to grow by only 11 percent.

There are a number of drivers of this higher population growth for Māori, including a higher fertility rate for Māori females compared with non-Mā ori females (a higher number of births per woman of childbearing age); in 2008, the Māori total fertility rate was 2.95, compared with 2.01 for non-Māori3.

Another factor is that the Māori population has a younger age structure, with a relatively large proportion in the main reproductive ages (15–44 years). This provides built-in momentum for future population growth (Statistics New Zealand 2005).
Page last updated: 21 July 2010

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